Echoes of the Great Patriotic War: Russia is again approaching a demographic hole

A stable population is a prerequisite for the preservation and development of the country in whose territory it lives. Unfortunately, this indicator depends not only on economic and social well-being, but may be associated with many other factors. According to scientists, Russia is on the verge of another demographic pit, against which state measures to support fertility may be powerless.

In order to understand what a demographic hole is and how this phenomenon arises in Russia, it is necessary to look at the dynamics of fertility in our country since the 1940s, when the USSR still existed.

In 1941-1945, our country waged a very difficult war against fascism both in the territory of its country and liberating European states and Chinese Manchuria. The consequence of this was a general reduction in the country's population and a sharp decrease in the birth rate in the 40s of the last century. Demographers even came up with a special term in relation to the generation born in the 1940s - “children of war”.

The influence of the Great Patriotic War on the demographic situation in the country can be traced back to our time. After the rise in fertility in the 50s, a decline occurred in the 60-70s, which was a direct consequence of the so-called "children of war" entering reproductive age. The small generation of the 40s and 60-70s led to low birth rates in the 90s. These were already the children of the "children of war." Another important factor influencing the decline in fertility at the end of the 20th century was the collapse of the USSR and the subsequent unstable economic situation in the country.

The graph also clearly shows the periods of spike in fertility in the 50s and 80s. According to experts, it was they who ensured a certain increase in the birth rate, which was observed in Russia in 2000-2010.

If you look at the age and gender pyramid of Russia - another interesting tool that allows you to analyze the demographic situation, then we will see the same picture. A small number of people aged 70-75 years ("children of war"), 45-50 years (children of "children of war") and an extremely low number of young people aged 15-25 years.

Age and gender pyramid of Russia

Demographers predict the plunge of Russia into the next demographic hole by 2020. According to experts, the period of low birth rates in our country will last until 2030.

Of course, do not forget that the country's population depends not only on the birth rate. This indicator consists of the natural population growth (birth rate minus the mortality rate) and migration processes (population influx into the country and migration abroad).

According to official statistics, as of January 1, 2018, the population of Russia is 146,877,088 people. In the language of experts, the demographic situation that is observed in Russia today is called the demographic crisis. This is due primarily to low fertility, increased mortality and, as a consequence, a slight natural population growth or reduction.

A similar situation is typical for many developed countries in Europe and the world. This is due primarily to the fact that our countries have completed the transition from a traditional to an industrial society, which is characterized by a low birth rate, at the level of simple reproduction of the population. But if we are close to developed countries in terms of fertility, then in terms of mortality, Russia, unfortunately, is far behind. Mortality in our country is still high, and average life expectancy is increasing very slightly.